Skip to content

2014 Senate · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 614 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.56% · Republican 44.44%

D+11.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.559 − 44.441 = 11.118
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.118) = -4.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.118| = 4.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34098, race ID 3 (538 database).