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2014 Governor · VT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 329 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 35%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.36% · Republican 45.10%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 35 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.357 − 45.096 = 1.261
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (1.261) = 10.739
  4. Absolute miss = |10.739| = 10.739

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34105, race ID 1230 (538 database).