Skip to content

2014 Governor · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,267 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 40%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.46% · Republican 46.12%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 40 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.459 − 46.121 = 2.338
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.338) = -2.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.338| = 2.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34118, race ID 1225 (538 database).