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2014 Governor · CT

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 980 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.46% · Republican 46.12%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.459 − 46.121 = 2.338
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (2.338) = -9.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.338| = 9.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34161, race ID 1225 (538 database).