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2014 Governor · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,314 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 53%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.88% · Republican 70.58%

R+46.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 53 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.883 − 70.584 = -46.701
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-46.701) = 21.701
  4. Absolute miss = |21.701| = 21.701

The poll overstated the Democrat by 21.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34167, race ID 1236 (538 database).