Skip to content

2014 Governor · MA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 980 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.54% · Republican 48.40%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.536 − 48.397 = -1.861
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.861) = -0.139
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.139| = 0.139

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34168, race ID 1251 (538 database).