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2014 Governor · AZ

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.62% · Republican 53.44%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.617 − 53.442 = -11.825
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-11.825) = 6.825
  4. Absolute miss = |6.825| = 6.825

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34175, race ID 1222 (538 database).