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2014 Senate · GA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 771 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-7.683) = 7.683
  4. Absolute miss = |7.683| = 7.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34191, race ID 17 (538 database).