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2014 Governor · WI

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 973 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.59% · Republican 52.26%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.588 − 52.263 = -5.675
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.675) = 6.675
  4. Absolute miss = |6.675| = 6.675

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34223, race ID 1245 (538 database).