Skip to content

2014 House · SD-1

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 429 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 61%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.47% · Republican 66.53%

R+33.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 61 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.470 − 66.530 = -33.060
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-33.060) = 6.059
  4. Absolute miss = |6.059| = 6.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34244, race ID 5685 (538 database).