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2014 House · HI-2

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 517 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 69% · Republican 19%

D+50.0

The certified result

Democrat 78.75% · Republican 18.65%

D+60.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 69 − 19 = 50.00
  2. Actual margin = 78.749 − 18.649 = 60.100
  3. Signed miss = 50.00 − (60.100) = -10.100
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.100| = 10.100

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34255, race ID 5461 (538 database).