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2014 Governor · IA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 1,265 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 51%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%

R+21.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 51 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-21.721) = 10.721
  4. Absolute miss = |10.721| = 10.721

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34306, race ID 1226 (538 database).