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2014 Governor · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 861 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 42%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.077) = 3.078
  4. Absolute miss = |3.078| = 3.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34307, race ID 1253 (538 database).