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2014 Governor · MI

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,003 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.066) = 4.066
  4. Absolute miss = |4.066| = 4.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34309, race ID 1248 (538 database).