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2014 Senate · AR

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 1,092 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.43% · Republican 56.50%

R+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.430 − 56.497 = -17.067
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-17.067) = 9.067
  4. Absolute miss = |9.067| = 9.067

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34310, race ID 32 (538 database).