2014 Governor · IA
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 911 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 53%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%
R+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-21.721) = 4.721
- Absolute miss = |4.721| = 4.721
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34314, race ID 1226 (538 database).