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2014 Senate · IA

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 911 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.76% · Republican 52.10%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.761 − 52.100 = -8.339
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.339) = 7.339
  4. Absolute miss = |7.339| = 7.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34314, race ID 26 (538 database).