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2014 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 1,224 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (13.285) = -1.285
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.285| = 1.285

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34317, race ID 2 (538 database).