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2014 Governor · ID

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 1,001 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 49%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 53.52%

R+15.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.550 − 53.522 = -14.972
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.972) = 2.971
  4. Absolute miss = |2.971| = 2.971

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34319, race ID 1223 (538 database).