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2014 Senate · AK

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 887 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.83% · Republican 47.96%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.833 − 47.962 = -2.129
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.129) = -2.870
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.870| = 2.870

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34321, race ID 12 (538 database).