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2014 Governor · ME

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 488 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 42%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.37% · Republican 48.19%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.374 − 48.185 = -4.811
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.811) = 4.811
  4. Absolute miss = |4.811| = 4.811

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34322, race ID 1224 (538 database).