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2014 House · AK-1

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,052 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 47%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.97% · Republican 50.97%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 47 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.967 − 50.966 = -9.999
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-9.999) = 3.999
  4. Absolute miss = |3.999| = 3.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34324, race ID 5339 (538 database).