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2014 Governor · IL

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 2,327 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.35% · Republican 50.27%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.347 − 50.270 = -3.923
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-3.923) = 8.922
  4. Absolute miss = |8.922| = 8.922

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34325, race ID 1252 (538 database).