Skip to content

2014 Governor · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2014-10-17 (18 days before the election) · 1,855 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 43.9%

D+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 43.9 = 1.40
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = 1.40 − (-1.077) = 2.478
  4. Absolute miss = |2.478| = 2.478

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34326, race ID 1253 (538 database).