2014 Governor · GA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 48%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%
R+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.860) = 2.860
- Absolute miss = |2.860| = 2.860
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34327, race ID 1249 (538 database).