2014 Governor · IA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 778 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 52%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%
R+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 52 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-21.721) = 10.721
- Absolute miss = |10.721| = 10.721
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34336, race ID 1226 (538 database).