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2014 Senate · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 1,417 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.9% · Republican 42.7%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.9 − 42.7 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (-1.945) = 1.144
  4. Absolute miss = |1.144| = 1.144

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34338, race ID 23 (538 database).