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2014 Governor · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 30%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.16% · Republican 31.46%

D+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 30 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.157 − 31.464 = 14.693
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (14.693) = 11.306
  4. Absolute miss = |11.306| = 11.306

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34339, race ID 1237 (538 database).