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2014 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 838 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.46% · Republican 46.12%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.459 − 46.121 = 2.338
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.338) = -2.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.338| = 2.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34340, race ID 1225 (538 database).