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2014 Governor · PA

Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 341 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.93% · Republican 45.07%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.932 − 45.068 = 9.864
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (9.864) = -2.864
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.864| = 2.864

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34341, race ID 1250 (538 database).