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2014 Governor · MA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 627 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 48%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.54% · Republican 48.40%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.536 − 48.397 = -1.861
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.861) = -4.139
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.139| = 4.139

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34343, race ID 1251 (538 database).