2014 House · MA-9
Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 410 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 41%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.95% · Republican 44.99%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 54.947 − 44.991 = 9.956
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (9.956) = -4.956
- Absolute miss = |-4.956| = 4.956
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34343, race ID 5531 (538 database).