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2014 Governor · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 1,009 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 62%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.03% · Republican 63.64%

R+30.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 62 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.030 − 63.642 = -30.612
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-30.612) = 2.612
  4. Absolute miss = |2.612| = 2.612

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34344, race ID 1243 (538 database).