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2014 Senate · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 1,690 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.244) = -1.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.244| = 1.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34345, race ID 8 (538 database).