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2014 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 261 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 40%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.10% · Republican 51.71%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 40 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.105 − 51.706 = -3.601
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.601) = 7.600
  4. Absolute miss = |7.600| = 7.600

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34347, race ID 5574 (538 database).