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2014 Governor · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 573 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.342) = -3.342
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.342| = 3.342

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34348, race ID 1247 (538 database).