2014 Governor · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 62%
R+36.0
The certified result
Democrat 25.43% · Republican 70.47%
R+45.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 62 = -36.00
- Actual margin = 25.432 − 70.467 = -45.035
- Signed miss = -36.00 − (-45.035) = 9.035
- Absolute miss = |9.035| = 9.035
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34352, race ID 1229 (538 database).