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2014 Governor · CO

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 966 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (3.342) = -5.342
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.342| = 5.342

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34355, race ID 1247 (538 database).