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2014 Senate · CO

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 966 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.945) = -4.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.056| = 4.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34355, race ID 23 (538 database).