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2014 Governor · CT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 931 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.46% · Republican 46.12%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.459 − 46.121 = 2.338
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.338) = 0.662
  4. Absolute miss = |0.662| = 0.662

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34357, race ID 1225 (538 database).