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2014 Governor · WI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 1,494 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.59% · Republican 52.26%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.588 − 52.263 = -5.675
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.675) = 3.675
  4. Absolute miss = |3.675| = 3.675

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34360, race ID 1245 (538 database).