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2014 Governor · GA

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 436 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 48%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-7.860) = 1.860
  4. Absolute miss = |1.860| = 1.860

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34364, race ID 1249 (538 database).