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2014 Governor · FL

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,198 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.077) = 1.078
  4. Absolute miss = |1.078| = 1.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34366, race ID 1253 (538 database).