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2014 Governor · WI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-17 (18 days before the election) · 860 respondents · IVR/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.59% · Republican 52.26%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.588 − 52.263 = -5.675
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.675) = 4.675
  4. Absolute miss = |4.675| = 4.675

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34375, race ID 1245 (538 database).