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2014 Senate · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 1,526 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 48.7%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 48.7 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (3.244) = -3.744
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.744| = 3.744

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34377, race ID 8 (538 database).