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2014 Governor · PA

Harper Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 680 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.93% · Republican 45.07%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.932 − 45.068 = 9.864
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (9.864) = 0.136
  4. Absolute miss = |0.136| = 0.136

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34379, race ID 1250 (538 database).