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2014 Governor · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 39%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.93% · Republican 45.07%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.932 − 45.068 = 9.864
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (9.864) = 2.136
  4. Absolute miss = |2.136| = 2.136

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34380, race ID 1250 (538 database).