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2014 Governor · ME

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 906 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 44.4%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 43.37% · Republican 48.19%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 44.4 = 0.30
  2. Actual margin = 43.374 − 48.185 = -4.811
  3. Signed miss = 0.30 − (-4.811) = 5.111
  4. Absolute miss = |5.111| = 5.111

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34383, race ID 1224 (538 database).