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2014 House · ME-1

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 419 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.7% · Republican 30.4%

D+25.3

The certified result

Democrat 60.43% · Republican 30.67%

D+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.7 − 30.4 = 25.30
  2. Actual margin = 60.432 − 30.674 = 29.758
  3. Signed miss = 25.30 − (29.758) = -4.458
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.458| = 4.458

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34383, race ID 5513 (538 database).