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2014 House · ME-2

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 397 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 42.9%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 41.83% · Republican 47.03%

R+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 42.9 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 41.827 − 47.031 = -5.204
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-5.204) = 4.304
  4. Absolute miss = |4.304| = 4.304

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34383, race ID 5514 (538 database).